FACT CHECK: NGX Crosses ₦100 Trillion, but Viral Claims on Tinubu’s ‘Economic Gains’ Are Largely Exaggerated

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Viral claims crediting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic policies for Nigeria’s stock market crossing the ₦100 trillion mark are only partly accurate, with several key assertions either misleading or unsupported by verifiable data.

A social media post by former presidential aide Reno Omokri on Monday celebrated what he described as a historic surge in the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), claiming the market capitalisation closed at ₦101.807 trillion on January 5 and attributing the milestone to exchange rate stability, trade surpluses, declining inflation and the Tinubu administration’s “Nigeria First” policy.

Available market data confirm that the Nigerian equities market did cross the ₦100 trillion threshold in early January 2026, making it the first time the NGX has reached that valuation. Analysts note that the rally was driven largely by gains in heavyweight stocks, improved investor sentiment and valuation adjustments at the start of the trading year.
However, the claim that the NGX “doubled in value within a year” does not fully align with verified figures.

Data from the close of 2025 show the market capitalisation was already close to ₦99 trillion, contradicting suggestions that it rose from about ₦56 trillion within the period referenced. While the market has recorded significant growth, the scale of increase claimed in the viral post is overstated.

The assertion that Nigeria’s capital market is now worth $67.8 billion could also not be independently confirmed, as dollar valuations vary depending on prevailing exchange rates and timing, with no official NGX or Central Bank publication validating that exact figure.

Several macroeconomic claims made in the post further lack firm backing. There is no publicly available official data confirming a $4.6 billion trade surplus in the third quarter of 2025, nor a projected $16 billion surplus for the full year.

Likewise, while inflation has shown signs of easing partly due to data rebasing and policy measures, authoritative statistics do not support a clear drop from 24.48 per cent to 14.45 per cent within the timeframe cited.

Projections that Nigeria’s foreign reserves are set to hit $51 billion also remain speculative and are not reflected in confirmed official figures.

In summary, while the NGX’s crossing of the ₦100 trillion mark is true and verifiable, broader claims tying the achievement directly to specific government policies and sweeping improvements in inflation, trade balance and national wealth are either exaggerated or unsupported by available evidence.

Analysts caution that stock market performance is influenced by multiple factors, including corporate earnings, liquidity conditions and global market trends, and should not be interpreted as a standalone measure of overall economic health.