Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Skyrockets to ₦7 Trillion in Q3 2025 After Just ₦1.28 Trillion in 2023

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Nigeria has recorded one of its sharpest trade gains in modern history, with the country’s surplus surging from ₦1.28 trillion in Q2 2023 to an extraordinary ₦7 trillion in Q3 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Crude oil exports remain the backbone of the surge, buoyed by global prices averaging above $90 per barrel. The entry of the Dangote Refinery has further changed the equation, cutting down costly fuel imports while boosting refined product exports to neighbouring countries, thereby widening Nigeria’s trade gap in its favour.

Non-oil exports are also on the rise, with cocoa, sesame seeds, cashew, and liquefied natural gas showing strong performance, alongside emerging exports of lithium and gold. These now account for nearly 15–18% of total exports, up from under 10% just four years ago.

On the import side, Nigeria still depends heavily on machinery, pharmaceuticals, and some refined fuel products, but the weaker naira has reduced import volumes and made exports more competitive abroad.

Economists, however, urge caution. “The numbers look good, but they’re still largely tied to oil and refinery output,” one Lagos-based analyst warned. “Without deeper structural reforms, a fall in oil prices or refinery disruptions could quickly erode this surplus.”

Public reactions are mixed: while many Nigerians applaud the development as a sign of resilience, others argue the surplus has yet to translate into lower inflation or better living standards.

Experts say the challenge now is sustainability — ensuring today’s historic ₦7 trillion trade surplus leads to long-term prosperity, job creation, and real economic stability.